Battle for the bush in the NT could decide who forms government

The Northern Territory makes up a large part of Australia's land mass, but it is a blip on the map on the electoral front.

Of the 151 seats in the Lower House of Federal Parliament, only two are occupied by people who live in the NT.

The contest for the electorates of Solomon and Lingiari is ramping up now that the election is over.

Labor currently holds a grip on both seats, but there are different factors that could make for a changing of guard on election night.

The battle for the bush vote in Lingiari is on the table.

The massive electorate of Lingiari covers 99.99 per cent of the NT -- everything beyond Darwin and parts of Palmerston.

The region was the domain of Labor stalwart Warren Snowdon for almost two decades, who retained the seat in 2019 with a 5.5 per cent margin.

But Mr Snowdon's decision to retire opened the door for a newcomer to be the voice of the Territory's bush.

The main battle between Labor's Marion Scrymgour and the Country Liberal Party's Damien Ryan will be fought while independents and minor parties will contest the seat.

She was later elevated to the role of Deputy Chief Minister, which made her the highest-ranking Indigenous woman in Australian political history.

He was mayor of Alice Springs for more than 13 years until he relinquished the role last year.

He contested the NT election in 2020 as the CLP candidate for Araluen but lost 42 votes.

The result in Lingiari is dependent on two factors, according to Antony Green, ABC's election analyst.

If Labor can retain its vote in the electorate's main regional hubs without the familiar presence of Mr Snowdon, it's important to consider.

There are two very different parts to the electorate and Labor will be working hard to hang on to both of them if they want to retain the seat, Mr Green said.

Since its inception in 2001, the Darwin and Palmerston seat of Solomon has been held by both major parties.

Labor's incumbent Luke Gosling, who holds the seat with a slim margin of 3.1 per cent, is hoping to become the first local representative to win three times in a row.

The former commando's main rival is the CLP's Tina MacFarlane, who ran for office in Lingiari in 2013 and 2016 despite running unsuccessfully for office in Lingiari.

To flip Solomon for the CLP, the former station owner will need around 1,700 people to change their votes.

The ABC's election analyst said voter sentiment towards the NT government had previously affected the federal vote in Solomon, particularly during the dying days of the CLP Giles government in 2016.

The CLP might still struggle to overcome the margin, even if some people decided to cast a protest against the Labor Gunner government this year, according to Mr Green.

If the swing is against the Coalition government at the general election, it's hard to see that Solomon would go more than three per cent in the opposite direction, he said.

If the election results are close across the country, the outcomes in Solomon and Lingiari could play a critical role in determining who party forms government, according to Mr Green.

He said that the Coalition government has a very hard job getting back into government.

It needs only a one seat majority, so it needs to hold all its seats in Western Australia and Queensland, and it needs to gain seats elsewhere.

The battle for the NT's two Senate seats was more predictable, according to Mr Green.

He said Labor's Malarndirri McCarthy was likely to be re-elected alongside the CLP's candidate Jacinta Price, who defeated incumbent Senator Sam McMahon in a preselection contest last year.

Senator McMahon is not giving up hope of a return to the Upper House after she announced she would put her name on the ballot as a candidate for the Liberal Democrats.