Bitcoin has continued to fall in the last four years

A market analyst at the Bitcoin magazine, Sam Rule, posted a comparative chart of the returns of the digital currency over the last four significant peaks. The most recent timeline, showing the current situation, suggests that there is more downside to come.

The 2011 period, which ended after 160 days and a 93% drawdown, the 2013 -- 2015 period, which ended after 410 days and an 85% drawdown, and the 2017 -- 2018 period, which ended after 360 days, and an 83% drawdown, are included in the chart.

The current 2021 -- 2022 period is 220 days in, and is down 69% from the November 2021 peak.

The previous percentage drawdowns range between - 93% and - 83%, suggesting that the current live drawdown of - 69% has more to fall before reaching a bottom.

By looking at the percentage drops sequentially, it noted that each period had progressively less severe declines. If the same pattern plays out this time, it may result in an approximate 80% drawdown. This would putBitcoin at a bottoming price of around $13,800.

The pattern above shows that BTC is becoming less volatile over time.

The most prolonged period was the 2013 -- 2015 period, at 410 days. There is no discernable pattern to be extracted from the data.

The past event should not be taken as an indicator of future performance. This method of analysis does not take into account the macroeconomic landscape, which is a factor in the current 2021 -- 2022 period.

The mainstream media reports a mixed bag as far as recessionary risk is concerned.

CNBC recently featured commentary from Simon Baptist, the Global Chief Economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Baptist plays down the risk of an imminent recession. He said that the likely outcome is stagflation, which is characterized by rising costs and slowed economic growth.

Larry Davies, the former Chief Economist at the Securities Exchange Commission, made a case for a likely coming recession, saying it is hard to stop inflation by raising interest rates without going into recession.

According to Lenore Hawkins, Managing Partner at Calit Advisors, the recession may already be here, based on consumer spending.

Spending behavior prioritizing essentials is a result of a squeeze on household incomes.