Australia’s minerals exports set to reach unimaginable heights

Australia's minerals exports are poised to reach unimaginable heights for a second year, as a global crunch lifts the value of the nation's coal and natural gas.

The Australian Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources said that there was unprecedented income from liquefied natural gas and coal as Russia roils energy markets as the invasion of Ukraine roils the top exports of iron ore. The nation will ship $419 billion of metals and energy commodities in the year to June 30, which is 3.5% more than in the previous period and 13% more than estimated in its previous quarterly report.

In a world bereft of readily available energy supplies and increasingly disruptive volatile weather, the price for thermal coal has rocketed to a new record high just as global economic activity rebounded from Covid-related slowdowns. The outlook is compounded by the loss of Russian supply from world markets, in which prices are expected to drift down but remain relatively high on average, according to the department.

The headline figure, if actualized, would be a second consecutive year of earnings in excess of A $400 billion, the department said.

Oil prices, while near the highest in a decade, are expected to retreat as the global supply picture gradually outpaces the recovery in demand due to fears of EU sanctions on Russia. Spot LNG remains volatile despite heightened global uncertainty, with prices likely to remain very high for some time as nations try to find alternatives to Russian gas, according to the report.

Iron ore earnings are expected to slip further despite optimism about improving demand from China as Beijing doubles down on efforts to boost its economy and a projected increase in volumes. With recovering supplies from Brazil and gains in output elsewhere, prices are expected to fall over the outlook period. The steelmaking material's share of total minerals exports will drop to just over a quarter from almost a third in the previous period.

The department says that higher global interest rates pose a downside risk to global economic activity and, by extension, resource and energy export earnings. Income is expected to fall to A $338 billion in 2023, which would still be the third-highest ever, it said.

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