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Oil prices flat as stocks fall

18.08.2022

Oil prices were relatively unchanged on Thursday as investors struggled with falling stockpiles in the United States, rising output from Russia and worries about a possible global recession.

The price of crude futures rose 10 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $93.75 a barrel by 0347 GMT. U.S. crude futures gained 10 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $88.21 a barrel.

The previous session saw prices increase more than 1 per cent, although Brent touched its lowest level since February.

Over the past few months, the futures have fallen as investors have been concerned with a potential recession that could hurt energy demand.

In July, British consumer price inflation jumped to 10.1 per cent, its highest since February 1982, causing a squeeze on households.

The oil market is in a multi-year tightening cycle, according to Mike Tran, RBC Capital's Mike Tran, who said investors are in search of near-term upside catalysts.

He said that the recession fears are well known, but the bullish catalysts such as the return of China or supply degradation from Russia are elusive.

In July China's refining output was lacklustre as strict COVID 19 lockdowns and fuel export controls curbed production.

Russia has started to increase oil production after the sanctions-related curbs and Asian buyers have increased purchases, leading Moscow to raise its forecasts for output and exports until the end of 2025, according to an economy ministry document reviewed by Reuters.

Russia's earnings from energy exports are expected to increase 38 per cent this year due to higher oil export volumes, a sign that supplies from the country have not been affected as much as originally anticipated, according to the document.

The U.S. crude stocks fell by 7.1 million barrels in the week to August 12, the Energy Information Administration EIA data showed, against expectations for a 275,000 barrel drop, as exports hit 5 million barrels a day, the highest on record.

Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased in June, while output went up to a more than two-year high, according to data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative JODI.

The market is waiting for developments from talks with world powers to revive Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, which could eventually lead to a boost to Iranian oil exports.

Chinese demand could boost Iranian crude exports for a third month in August, as Russian oil becomes more expensive, according to data firms tracking the flows.