La Ni could return to Australia by mid spring

Four of seven climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that La Ni could return by early spring to mid spring, potentially leading to the third consecutive La Ni a summer.

Mudge Ashley Fraser, VFF Grains President and Rutherglen farmer Ashley Fraser said the season has been going well for grain growers, and that more rain over the next month or two would make it even better.

Crops are looking really good at the moment, and as the days start to run off from here on in and the temperatures slowly increase, we'll be set up for a good yield, he said.

Mr Fraser said that harvesting wet could cause high-quality grain to be downgraded.

He said that it could wipe out 25 to 30, even up to 40 per cent of their price that could be achievable.

The yield might still be there, but if the grain quality is downgraded, the farmers will take a real hit on that front. He said it could lead to other problems, like green growth coming up through the crop and wheat being shot or sprung, which means the seeds have started to sprout before they've been harvested.

There is not a lot that can be done preparation-wise for that, according to Fraser.

You could make sure you have access to a drying facility, but you've got to wait and see. Climate models and indicators have shifted, meaning they have met the La Ni alert criteria.

When we met the La Ni alert criteria in the past, La Ni itself has gone on to form around 70 per cent of the time, senior meteorologist Jonathan How said.

There was a fair amount of rain over the time when harvest would start, according to Mr How.

The three-month climate outlook shows a high chance of above average rainfall for most of the eastern two-thirds of the Australian mainland between September and November. Mr Fraser said it's just another thing to keep in mind during a tumultuous time for farmers.

The price of Australian canola and barley has gone up as a result of the war in Ukraine and grain shortages in Europe.

He said when it came to the possibility of a wet harvest, it would just be a matter of when and where large storms would hit.

I know there is a chance of rain coming through to the north of us last year. Those farmers under that got 60 -- 70 millimetres and 30 kilometres south you got nothing, Mr Fraser said.

It's just luck of the pluck, and that could be the other way around this year.