Europe’s cold snap shows how to ration energy

An Arctic chill that is blowing across western Europe through next week will be the first test of how willing people are to delay switching on the heating in a bid to save energy and ease household budgets.

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The weather in London will be about 5 degrees Celsius below average and fall as low as 6.5 degrees Celsius overnight on Sept. 27, according to forecasters Maxar Technologies Inc. Frankfurt, Germany will be 3.5 degrees Celsius below normal levels on Sept. 28 while parts of France and Spain will experience temperatures 3 -- 4 degrees lower than the seasonal norm.

Grid operators are drawing up plans for how to ration energy if necessary this winter. The onus is on reducing demand, with options maxed out to replace Russian supplies of natural gas. Ideally, this is done voluntarily by consumers, but there are several steps a network company can take, the most of which is organized shutoffs.

It will be even colder early next week as a plunge of Arctic air surges southwards and a strong northerly wind will accentuate the chilly feel, according to the UK Met Office.

The heating season doesn't officially start until October when temperatures are set to return to normal, but it is a reality check for the region as governments try to cut energy use from all corners of the economy. The European Union is talking about a mandatory power reduction target.

The hope is that many people will keep their thermostats turned down even in colder months, as governments are releasing billions of euro to support consumers struggling with rising energy costs.

There are signs of demand reduction from households due to surging retail tariffs, said EnergyScan, the market analysis platform of Engie SA. This is yet to be confirmed in the coming weeks. With many people back in the office, energy demand should peak in the early morning and late afternoon hours, especially with more lights being turned on as the days get shorter.

There are signs that early-morning gas demand is increasing in Britain, according to data from network operator National Grid Plc. Wind generation has been low, highlighting how still weather combined with cold temperatures could be tricky this winter.

Wind generation will increase as normal temperatures return to normal by the start of October.

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