Right-wing alliance seen winning Italy election

The right-wing party of Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Meloni speaks to the media at her party's headquarters in Rome, Sept 25, 2022. The GREGORIO BORGIA AP ROME - A right-wing alliance led by Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy party was on course for a clear majority in the next parliament, giving the country its most right-wing government since World War Two.

Meloni, the leader of the largest coalition party, was likely to become Italy's first female prime minister.

Meloni, 45, plays down her party's post-fascist roots and portrays it as a mainstream conservative group.

An exit poll for state broadcaster RAI said that the bloc of conservative parties, which also includes Matteo Salvini's League and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia party, won between 41 percent and 45 percent, enough to guarantee control of both houses of parliament.

The lower house and the Senate are both ahead of center-right! It'll be a long night but I want to say thanks, Salvini said on Twitter.

Italy's electoral law favors groups that manage to create pre-ballot pacts, giving them an outsized number of seats by comparison to their vote tally.

The right-wing alliance would win between 227 and 257 of the 400 seats in the lower house of parliament, and 111 131 of the 200 Senate seats, according to RAI.

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The result is a remarkable rise for Meloni, whose party won only 4 percent of the vote in the last national election in 2018, but this time around was forecast to emerge as Italy's largest group on 22 -- 26 percent.

Voters come in and out of a polling station within casting their vote on Sept 25, 2022 in Rome. ALBERTO PIZZOLI AFP But it was not a ringing endorsement, with provisional data showing turnout of just 64.1 percent against 74 percent four years ago - a record low in a country that has historically enjoyed a high level of voter participation.

Although heavy storms in the south appeared to have deterred many from voting there, participation fell across a swathe of northern and central cities, where the weather was calmer.

The initial market reaction is likely to be muted, given that opinion polls had predicted the result accurately.

Giuseppe Sersale, fund manager and strategist at Anthilia in Milan, said I don't expect a big impact, although Italian assets are not necessarily bad tomorrow, given how the market is starting to treat Europe and countries with worrisome public finances and exposure to the crisis and Ukraine.

Italy's first autumn national election in more than a century was triggered by party infighting that brought down Prime Minister Mario Draghi's broad national unity government in July.

The head of state will summon party leaders and decide the shape of the new government when the new government is not met until October 13, at which point the new slimmed-down parliament will not meet.