Ministers fling out economic reform plan

They believe that the fleshing out of the details of their economic plans on planning laws, energy, childcare, worker visas will persuade markets that UK growth will accelerate.

They argue that the reforms will turn things around, with iron discipline on existing spending plans and a medium-term plan to reduce national debt over the next few weeks.

The spending plans were set in cash last year. They do not account for 10% inflation. Like previous policy, the chancellor would not commit to updating benefits in line with inflation. The fiscal surprise was small, a reference to the 2 bn value of the 45 p tax rate. It is not possible to have caused the market chaos, according to the government.

They view the turmoil as a result of the US Federal Reserve hiking interest rates, which has led to a strong dollar that helps rein in inflation.

The Bank of England will be able to reduce interest rates as soon as possible after inflation is defeated, because of the economic reform package.

That is what is underpinning the offensive from the prime minister and cabinet. If it doesn't work, there will be weeks of uncertainty as currency and borrowing markets move wildly in response to every announcement, rumour or piece of economic data.

It is impossible to disentangle the market reaction from politics. There are already a number of senior Conservatives who are breaking ranks with their leadership on aspects of the mini-budget.

Things have moved rather quickly since his offer to do a forecast with the mini-budget was rejected, contributing to the chaos, many in the finance world argue.

The OBR, its costings, methods and forecasts, are now central to the plan to regain confidence. The abacus economics, the Treasury orthodoxy and the bean counters all have a strike back.