Europe likely to see colder, drier and less windy early winter

According to forecasts by the EU s meteorological agency, Europe is likely to experience a colder, drier and less windy early winter.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) cautions that forecasts of winter conditions are notoriously difficult in early October. But it says a cold, still and dry snap in November and December is more likely because of this year s La Ni a powerful weather pattern influenced by cooler temperatures in the Pacific.

Carlo Buontempo, the Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Monetary Fund, said that La Ni a tends to cause disruption to westerly winds, creating high pressure over Europe, which is what models are showing for the beginning of winter.

There is a chance of easterly winds leading to lower than usual temperatures in these conditions. There is a higher chance of a cold outbreak at the beginning of winter. He cautioned that more reliable data would only be available for three to four weeks, and would only be available in three to four weeks. In previous years, gas prices had risen or fallen on the basis of mid-term forecasts but only those made in early November when winter predications could be made with greater certainty, according to Buontempo.

He said that the models show that there is a slightly higher chance of a cold outbreak in November and December than usual. We use data from the UK Met Office and also from M t o-France, the Deutscher Wetterdienst, the CMCC in Italy and contributions from Japan, Canada and the US.

All these models show higher than usual pressure at the beginning of winter in Europe. We have some confidence in the fact that all the models show a disruption in the westerly flows. Buontempo said that if forecasts were correct, the colder temperatures would increase the reliance on gas, while stiller and dryer conditions would reduce the contributions of wind and hyrdo-electric power. If the forecast was correct, solar power would be boosted, he said.

The weather patterns in a typical La Ni a year tend to change in mid-winter to bring warmer westerly winds for the later half of the season, Buontempo pointed out.

According to the University of Reading Department of Meteorology, the winter may be milder than average, based on predicted temperatures from November to February.

Tom Morgan, a forecaster at the Met Office, said there was a possibility of a La Ni - winter unfolding, but he added that he was not sure whether that would result in a cold winter for the UK. The sea temperatures in the UK are well above average at the moment. Buontempo said higher sea temperatures would not warm Europe if the wind changed and colder air from central Asia and Siberia was brought in.

He said that there was a greater interest in mid-term forecasts because of the energy crisis. This year there is more pressure from journalists and governments because everyone wants to know what the winter holds. As we move towards a low carbon economy, we rely more on wind and solar and hydro. We are able to predict and adapt to this seasonal variation so that we can cope with climate change. A report in the Financial Times about ECMWF's mid-term forecasts has caused alarm in Europe. Petrit Selimi, Kosovo's former foreign minister, tweeted that it represented more bad news Sam Freedman, a senior fellow at the Institute for Government thinktank, said: Government better pray this is wrong and Adam Tooze, an economic historian at Columbia University, said weather has become a vital macroscopic concern.