14 storms at low end of projections

The total of 14 storms was at the low end of predictions by forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who said as late as August that there could be 14 to 20 named storms, including six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major ones.

The administration s lead hurricane outlook forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said that we were one major hurricane short. They were also off in forecasting that the combined intensity of the entire season's storms, a measure called accumulated cyclone energy, would be higher than it actually was.

In August, Rosencrans said that the presence of the climate pattern called La Ni a, characterized by unusually cool water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, could lead to greater hurricane activity. There is often less wind shear in the Atlantic during a La Ni a, which allows tropical storms and hurricanes to grow stronger.

But Mr. Rosencrans said Tuesday that there appeared to be significant wind shear during the season, especially in August, when no storms were fully formed. Normally, mid-August is the beginning of peak hurricane season, which lasts until mid-October.

He said that August was the real unforecast surprise of the season. He said a lack of moisture at high altitudes in the tropical Atlantic where storms begin their development may have played a role as well.