China's exports, imports likely to fall further in November

BEIJING: China's exports and imports are likely to fall further in November due to weak global demand, production disruptions and waning demand at home, according to a Reuters poll on Monday. October's figures were down an annual 0.3 per cent, according to the median forecast of 28 economists in the poll. That would be the worst performance since May 2020.

The actual trade data will be released on Wednesday.

As the country's property downturn and the struggle to contain COVID-19 continue to take a toll on the economy, the frail economists estimate for exports suggests cooling global demand that has been hurt by higher interest rates in major economies.

A protracted downturn in export orders was seen in the sub-indexes for new export orders in both the official and private sector factory activity surveys last month.

Some manufacturing hubs, such as Zhengzhou and Guangzhou, had outbreaks of COVID 19 in November that disrupted production and weighed on exports.

The November imports of November were down 6.0 per cent due to a high year-earlier base for comparison and sluggish domestic demand. It would mark the worst fall since May 2020 and would be the worst fall since May 2020, compared to a 0.7 per cent decline in October.

South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator for China's imports, were 25.5 per cent lower in November than a year earlier, marking their sixth straight month of annual declines and the worst since May 2009.

The median trade surplus was US $78.1 billion, compared to US $85.15 billion in October.

China's economy slowed broadly in October and analysts said the pain may have lingering in November as COVID 19 flare-ups across many cities caused new lockdowns and curbs.

The economy may barely grow at all in November, adding conviction to our below-consensus GDP growth forecast of 2.4 per cent for Q4, said analysts at Nomura in a note.

Some local governments are relaxing the restrictions on quarantine rules and testing requirements due to the introduction of a vaccine campaign for the elderly. Six high-profile economists called for more open-ended economic activities in an article published on the weekend.

They wrote that priority should be given to opening up economic activities such as public transportation, office buildings, restaurants, hotels, logistics, shopping malls, and other places in the near future.

It is proposed that the gross domestic product growth target for 2023 should be set at above 5 per cent and there should be a clear signal that development is top priority and economic activities are opened up in order to increase expectations and boost everyone's confidence.