Nifty scales all-time highs in 2021

The Santa Claus rally came early this time to Dalal Street, with the BSE benchmark Sensex and the NSE barometer Nifty scaling their fresh all-time high on December 1. The month favors bulls if history is to go by. In the past 20 years, Nifty gained 80 per cent of the time in Decembers. According to a study by Samco Securities, December has the highest average monthly returns of 3.2 per cent among the 12 months of the year.

It followed by July when the Nifty closed on a positive note in 75 per cent of the times in the past 20 years. The average monthly return for July was 2.3 per cent. September is the second-best month in terms of average return, with a 2.6 per cent average gain.

In the last 10 years, the Nifty 500 has delivered positive returns of 80 per cent of the times in Decembers, with an average gain of 2 per cent, according to Samco Securities. The Nifty Metal, Nifty IT, Bank Nifty, Nifty Auto, Nifty Energy and Nifty Financial Services have ended in positive zones 70 percent of the times during the past 10 years. Nifty Pharma and Nifty Realty have returned a positive return of 60 per cent in the past 10 years.

The current year has been very volatile for the domestic equity market. The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty have gained more than 8 per cent in the past year. A number of factors including the geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine, volatile inflows by foreign institutional investors and rising interest rates kept sentiment jittery throughout the year. The 30 - share index Sensex and the 50 share index Nifty managed to scale their respective lifetime highs of 63,583. The market should be in a better position in 2023, especially if the global supply chain and logistics are sorted out and inflation is showing signs of easing, according to the well-known equity investor Safir Anand. The US Fed's impact will be felt in the system and India should show a sweet capex uptick. He said that a 15 per cent rally is possible in 2023 unless we have a black swan.