New York, East Coast facing a summer gasoline shortage

New York and much of the East Coast are at risk of a shortage of gasoline this summer, as the European Union ban of Russian fuel threatens to choke off supplies the US relies on during peak driving season.

The seasonal gasoline stockpiles are at the lowest level in the last decade, and heavy winter maintenance at refineries may trim inventories. The EU's ban on Russian oil-product imports starting February 5 will strain the region's feedstock supplies, which will limit how much gasoline the bloc can make for itself or the US East Coast, which increasingly relies on transatlantic imports in the summer.

The price spike that would accompany such supply shocks threatens to burden consumers still stinging from last summer s $5 a-gallon gas. President Joe Biden, who has been a fan of capping fuel costs and using prices as a cudgel against political rivals, would be faced with a resurgent pump prices.

Suppliers will need to get creative to prevent New York and the rest of the East Coast from running out of fuel. The US is a net exporter of gasoline, but most of the excess is in the Gulf Coast, and transportation to the East Coast is constrained by insufficient pipeline capacity and the expense of waterborne shipping.

According to Energy Aspects, a London-based consultancy, suppliers could move fuel from the Gulf Coast into storage and blending facilities in the Caribbean, such as the Bahamas, and then export from there to the East Coast. The US may draw more supply from Asia and the Middle East, but the long journey and high shipping costs mean that option isn't likely to provide immediate relief at the pump.

The average US gasoline prices have gone up by about 40 cents a gallon since Christmas, and were about $3.51 a gallon as of Sunday, according to auto club AAA. The transition to more expensive summer-grade gasoline, which evaporates more slowly, will start in March and is likely to push prices higher as warmer weather brings more drivers onto the road.

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