Bank of England’s first rate rise since 2008

There are signs that the Bank of EnglandBank of England is coming in to land on rate rises, and today's could be the last.

The pace of rises is slowing, and inflation is predicted to fall faster this year than expected due to the government's help for energy bills.

If there were evidence of more inflationary pressures, further rises would be required, according to the Bank. Even after yesterday's shock inflation number, it was suggested that some of that pressure, for example, was declining from wage growth.

There are concerns about the impact of global financial fragility, as the British economy is better than feared, with a predicted recession now predicted to be swerved. The UK remains resilient. Bailey told broadcasters that this is not a repeat of 2008, but that is another cloud weighing on the Bank's decisions, with some memories of the quickly reversed rises made by the Bank even after the credit crunch started in 2007.

There is a three-way balancing act going on right now between surprisingly strong double-digit UK inflation, stagnant growth and the fragility of the global banking system which could have a knock-on impact on funding of banks, as well as being based in the UK.

The consumer seems to be more resilient to an extraordinary energy shock. Unemployment is not expected to rise, further underpinning consumers. The economy may still be flat, but given the size of the energy shock, it could have been much worse.

May is about to be the time for a pause if some of these uncertainties don't intrude.