Japan’s vote-value gap widening in Assembly elections
A mainichi Shimbun study shows that the FUKUOKA vote between the most populous constituencies per lawmaker in Japan has widened further in some 80% of prefectures and cities set to have elections in April due to the last unified local races in 2019.
The population per seat varies from constituency to constituency, and prefectures and government-designated cities are divided into several constituencies for assembly elections. The national census conducted once every five years, and examines if corrective measures are necessary, each local assembly calculates the vote disparity and corrective measures are necessary. The Mainichi Shimbun surveyed assembly secretariats of 47 prefectures and 20 government-designated cities in February and March 2023 and received responses from 67.
39 prefectures and 14 cities had a wider vote disparity when compared to the last unified local elections in April, as well as the 41 prefectures and 17 cities holding assembly elections in April. This is likely because underpopulated areas were losing more people, while urban areas saw population growth. Of these, 13 prefecture and nine cities took corrective measures, including revising assembly seat numbers and electoral district rezoning.
26 prefectures and five cities didn't take any corrective measures. Despite taking measures, ten prefectures and five cities saw a wider vote-value gap than the 2019 elections. In all, 36 prefectures and 10 cities will head to the assembly elections in April, whose campaigns open on March 31, with wider voter disparities than in 2019.
Twenty-eight prefectures and one city will have a double vote-weight disparity. Of the 41 prefectures, Tokushima has the largest gap at 3.45 times, while the smallest gap is seen in Saga at 1.46 times. The vote-value disparity is over three times between the most populous constituencies in Kanagawa, Hokkaido, Hyogo and Tokushima prefectures, but they all have special election districts based on the Public Offices Election Act, which allows assembly seats to be allocated to underpopulated areas.
Asked why actions to correct vote-value gaps weren't taken, the Okayama Prefecture Assembly secretariat said residents in mountainous areas need to be considered, while the Niigata Prefecture answered, Voters are used to the current electoral zones. The Tochigi Prefecture said that combining single seat districts would have significant consequences. The election law stipulates that while the number of seats in each local assembly constituency should be proportional to the population, it also states that it may be determined while taking into account the balance between regions, while having it broadly based on the population. The Supreme Court ofAppeals ruled in 2015 the Chiba Prefectural Assembly election constitutional with the largest vote disparity at 2.51 times. The top court deemed the 2014 House of Representatives election with the largest gap of 2.13 times in a state of unconstitutionality, showing the court tends to give local assemblies more discretionary authority.
The Kumamoto University Vice President Hironori Ito, a political science professor, told the Mainichi: In principle, local assembly elections are based on population ratios, and they have responsibilities in correcting vote-weight disparity, and we see many single seat districts with no contest as a result, and this is concerning as it can cause divergence from the will of the people.