China birthrate falls to lowest level in six decades

China's birthrate has fallen to its lowest level in six decades, barely surpassing deaths in 2021 despite major government efforts to increase population growth and stave off a demographic crisis.

In 2021, 10.62 million babies were born in China, a rate of 7.52 per thousand people, the national bureau of statistics said on Monday. In the same period, 10.14 million deaths were recorded, a mortality rate of 7.18 per thousand, a population growth rate of just 0.34 per thousand head of population.

The growth rate is the lowest since 1960, and adds to the findings of the once-a decade census of May last May, which showed an average annual rise of 0.53%, down from 0.57% reported from 2000 to 2010.

China, like much of eastern Asia, is in the grip of a population crisis, with lowered birthrates, and predictions of imminent negative population growth and an ageing population. The proportion of over 60 s in China rose from 18.7% in 2020 to 18.9% according to Monday s figures.

The demographic challenge is well known but the speed of population ageing is faster than expected, said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

China's total population may have reached its peak in 2021, this suggests. It indicates that China's potential growth is likely to slow down faster than expected. There are major changes to be made to address the decline, including raising the retirement age. A three-child policy has replaced the two-child policy that was introduced in 2016 and has sparked a slight increase in births before falling again.

Young Chinese people reluctance to have children is a factor that is cited as a factor in the high cost of living, delayed marriages and lack of social mobility. In response, Beijing has banned expensive private tutoring and pledged better access to childcare and maternity leave.

Prof Wang Feng, a researcher at the University of California Irvine, said the results showed that the root causes ran deeper than the policymakers realised.

He told the Guardian that the policies announced last year are mostly rhetoric, or at most like Band-Aids.

Without addressing the deeply rooted causes discouraging young Chinese from getting married and having children, from gender inequality to high living costs, what we are seeing now is likely the beginning of a decline in birthrate and a prolonged process of population decline in China. China is facing potential instability on the economic front, with GDP data published alongside the population findings showing a dramatic slowdown in the final months of 2021.

China, the world's second-largest economy, reported a higher than expected GDP rise of 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the government's predictions of 6%, but with growth concentrated in the first half of the year. It rose by 4% in the fourth quarter, down from 4.9% in the third quarter.

The domestic economy is under triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock and weaker expectations, said Ning Jizhe, bureau spokesman.

The last year has seen a lot of change in consumer habits and government intervention in major Chinese industries. Retail sales growth fell from 3.9% in November to 1.7% in December.

Economic growth is under pressure and recent Omicron outbreaks in China have exacerbated the downside risk, said Zhang.

Construction has slumped and property sales have been battered due to the crisis in development, most notably the ongoing financial difficulties of the major firm Evergrande.

There has been waves of layoffs due to government intervention into the $1 billion private tutoring industry and continued crackdowns on the tech sector. There have been rising power prices and power cuts due to an emissions-reduction push coupled with supply chain issues and bans on some imported coal.