Bank of Canada may start rate hikes next week

Canadian banks are bringing forward their forecasts for interest rate hikes to as early as next week, amid growing evidence that the economy is hitting limits and inflation pressures are rising.

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The Bank of Canada will begin a hiking cycle on January 26 at its policy decision, according to economists at TD Securities and Laurentian Bank. Bank of Montreal brought forward its call on the first increase to March from April, while Bank of Nova Scotia said the central bank cannot afford to wait any longer.

The Bank of Canada released its quarterly survey of business executives on Monday, which painted a picture of an economy running hot, with widespread labor shortages, record inflation expectations, and strong demand, and there were more hawkish calls for more hawkish calls.

Dominique Lapointe, an economist with Laurentian Bank Securities, said the context is appropriate for a liftoff next week.

Markets are pricing in a January hike with overnight swaps pointing to a greater than 70% chance that the central bank will move next week. Since March 2020, the Bank of Canada has kept its overnight rate at the emergency level of 0.25%.

The survey data shows that risks require the central bank to move sooner than later, according to analysts.

Derek Holt, economist with Scotiabank, wrote a report to investors that the Bank of Canada can't afford to wait a long time to tighten monetary policy.

In a Bloomberg News poll of economists earlier this month, only four of 20 analysts predicted a rate increase before April.

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