Analyst Expectations Diverge Amidst Uncertainties and Varied Growth Projections

Analyst Expectations

Analysts have varied expectations for ICICI Bank's Q4FY24 results, with net profit growth estimates ranging from 4.6% to 17% year-on-year (YoY). Key monitorables include margin trajectory, deposit traction, and the bank's outlook.

CLSA: Expects net profit of Rs 10,540 crore, up 16% YoY and 3% sequentially. NII is seen rising 8% YoY and 2% QoQ to Rs 19,010 crore.

Expects net profit to rise 4.7% YoY to Rs 9,551.6 crore, a 7% decline QoQ. NII and PPoP may rise around 6% each.

Expects robust growth in advances and deposits at 19% and 17% YoY, respectively. Loan growth driven by the retail segment. NIMs expected to decline by 10bps QoQ to 4.3%. Net profit pegged at Rs 10,571.9 crore, NII at Rs 18,850.9 crore, and PPoP at Rs 14,967.5 crore.

Expects PPoP to grow at 3% YoY/-3% QoQ to Rs 14,287.4 crore, led by weak NII growth. Loan growth expected at 17% YoY. Provisions expected to remain low.

Expects provisions to remain low due to lower slippages. Key concern is NIM progress as cost of funds is yet to peak. Deposit mobilization is another key area of discussion.

Expects deposits to jump around 17.4% YoY to Rs 13.86 trillion. Loans may surge 18% on year to Rs 12 trillion. Flat gross and net NPA ratios expected.

Margin trajectory and outlook

Deposit traction

Housing loan business trends

Capex cycle and expected growth

Retail non-performing assets (NPAs)

Progress of NIM

Deposit mobilization