China faces uncertainty as COVID 19 grips virus

China has a COVID zero stance that has put it at odds with the rest of the world and is demanding a growing economic toll, but an exit strategy is elusive as authorities worry about the ability of the health care system to cope and adapt to new strains.

Chinese medical experts believed last year that higher vaccination rates would allow China to relax strict rules on movement and testing as infection rates slow elsewhere in the world.

The emergence of the highly transmissible omicron variant shattered those hopes.

While some analysts have branded China's approach as unsustainable, many local health experts and others from overseas say that the country has no choice but to continue with its less developed health system.

Some argue that China's economy could even emerge stronger than ever if it keeps omicron at bay.

Liang Wannian, head of the expert epidemic prevention group at China's National Health Commission, said at a Saturday briefing that the cost effectiveness of our country's prevention and control has been extremely high for a country with a population of 1.4 billion.

In the past week, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, called for China to review its approach, saying it had become a burden on both the Chinese and global economies.

China is worried that the cost of lowering its defences could prove even higher, especially with a health care system that has lagged its development.

Jaya Dantas, professor of international health at Curtin School of Population Health in Perth, Australia, said the government is concerned about the spread of the disease because of the large population and high density.

At the end of 2020, China had 4.7 million registered nurses, or 3.35 per 1,000 people, according to official data. The United States has around 3 million -- about 9 per 1,000.

China is wary of the risks of new variants, especially because it refuses to import foreign vaccines. Studies suggest that China s vaccines are less effective against omicron and it has not yet rolled out its own mRNA version.

The insidious omicron variant could lead to a rise in the absolute number of deaths even if it is proven to be less deadly, and China must remain patient, according to Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center For Disease Control and Prevention.

The results of China's coronaviruses prevention and control are far superior, he said in a weekend interview with the Beijing News.

China has stepped up its health warnings, calling for citizens to ignore the fact that omicron is no more serious than the flu and to stay vigilant.

On Wednesday, the Global Times, published by the official People's Daily, lashed out at overseas media for mocking China's policies, saying they saved lives.

It said foreign criticism was based on unfounded or premature optimism regarding the end of the epidemic.

Experts in China and overseas have doubted whether Omicron represents the final stage of the epidemic.

Raina MacIntyre, head of the Biosecurity Research Program at the University of New South Wales Kirby Institute, said SARS-CoV-2 will not magically turn into a malaria-like endemic infection.

She said it will keep causing epidemic waves, driven by waning vaccine immunity, new variants that escape vaccine protection, unvaccinated pockets, births and migration.

China's economy is expected to slow as a result of COVID 19 related supply disruptions, while domestic outbreaks weigh on travel and consumption.

Hong Kong has put the Chinese-controlled city out of step with other global finance centers and is battering its economy because of its COVID zero approach.

China's economy has remained resilient, with GDP growth at 8.1% last year, far exceeding expectations.

MacIntyre of the Kirby Institute said it wasn't a binary choice between opening up and remaining isolated, adding that there was no need to surrender to the virus, as Australia is doing at the moment. She said that China could emerge from the crisis in the strongest position, especially if COVID 19 leads to widespread cognitive impairment, organ damage and other long-term conditions in other countries.

If China keeps the disease under control, their population will be fit and healthy in the future, while the United States and Europe will be burdened with chronic disease.