China's refusal to accept deep carbon emissions cuts at Paris climate summit

A man walks near a coal-fired power plant in Harbin, Heilongjiang province, China on September 27, 2019. CHINESE : China's refusal to accept requests for deeper carbon emissions cuts during recent visits from top climate envoys of the United States and Britain could undermine progress at the upcoming global climate summit in Glasgow in November, experts say.

China rebuffed U.S. Ambassador John Kerry's call to strengthen its emissions objectives ahead of the COP 26 summit by saying climate could not be separated from the wider breakdown in the countries' relationship. This shift in China's tone on climate relations between the world's two biggest greenhouse gas emitters has sapped momentum for the Glasgow talks and contrasts with the cooperation between the two countries in 2015 that paved the way to the landmark Paris climate agreement.

China no longer feels obliged to consider deep carbon and carbon emissions requests after former President Donald Trump rejected U.S. climate change commitments, most notably by withdrawing from the Paris accord, especially after relations between two countries deteriorated over trade, human rights and geopolitical issues during Trump's term, experts say.

China and the U.S. still agree on climate issues, but the bigger problem now is the difference in the political positions of the two sides, said Zou Ji, the president of Energy Foundation China, who was part of China's delegation at the 2015 Paris talks.

The balance of power and influence on the two sides has changed. The United States says China, the world's biggest greenhouse gas emitter, has not done enough despite proposing to reduce emissions to net zero by 2060. They want China to pledge to reduce peak emissions earlier and achieve more to reach carbon emissions, a key source of greenhouse gases.

However, China argues its current commitments are strong.

President Xi Jinping has repeatedly promised to increase the strength of its National Democratic contributions NDC the emissions goals that each country must submit under the Paris accords, to reflect China's commitment to reach net zero target 2060.

China's top climate watchman Xie Zhenhua told India in August that China had already strengthened other pledges, including a new renewable energy target and a commitment to get emissions to peak before 2030 instead of around 2030.

China has also said it would reduce energy consumption from 2026 onwards and produce 25% of its energy from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

The Chinese government is unwilling to be seen buckling to U.S. diplomatic pressure on coal consumption cuts, Chinese officials said. China is the world's biggest coal consumer and the industry employs many workers.

Amid all the uncertainties, one thing has become clear - Beijing will not give into foreign powers, said Li Shuo, a greenpeace expert. How do Chinese people push climate action is to align it with China's own interests. China must submit updated NDCs before COP 26 begins. But, instead of introduce new pledges, analysts expect them to provide more details about how existing long-term targets can be achieved, described by Premier Li Keqiang as extremely arduous.

Environmental think-tanks, such as the Innovative Green Development Program IGDP from Beijing, say the government may update China's NDCs to include a 2025 emission limit for energy consumption, more action on greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, as well as a plan to achieve existing targets.

Last week, the China Center for International Cooperation on Environment and Development, a government advisory body, also recommended China to set an emissions cap for 2025. However, it is uncertain whether the government will make bigger changes in the NDCs and Kerry's comments following the meetings with Donald Trump are not a cause for optimism.

The U.S. had hoped to keep climate discussions as standalone issues from other items such as its support for Taiwan and allegations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

The senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi told Kerry during their meeting that the oasis of climate cooperation could not be separated from the diplomatic desert between them.

China could seek exemption from a new European carbon border tax and push richer countries to fulfill funding pledges to developed nations, analysts said.

Beijing will also seek reassurances that Washington can meet its own pledges, said Zou at the Energy Foundation China.

If Trump or someone with the same views returns, then it is a matter of concern whether climate policy will have another twist, he said.

Alex Wang, an expert in environmental law at the University of California, Los Angeles, said that the best way the United States could influence China's climate action by example.

The U.S. critiques are not surprising and point to real areas where China needs to do better, he said. In retrospect, the United States has not done nearly enough. One of the best ways the United States can exert pressure now is by taking decisive and durable climate action at home.