Two decades ago, Peter Costello called it one of the most exciting documents that we have ever seen. Besides, shadow treasurer Bob McMullen, by contrast, grizzled it would be little more than a cynical attempt to bolster Costello's image. So much so that he intends to release these reports more frequently, should Labor remain in office.
The IGR is a 40-year strategy for Treasury crystal ball-gazing. The aim is to point to the challenges that are on the horizon, as actions can be taken to maximize opportunities and avert disaster.
The biggest challenge identified in today's report is the need for a more productive economy. In 2062, Australia will be older and more heavily populated. The economy is going to grow more slowly, he said, but the economy will be bigger. Wherever you look in today's report, the common thread is the need to boost productivity.
However, productivity can frequently prompt fears of workers being squeezed to churn out more for less. It is an image the treasurer is trying to counter.
Five unstoppable shifts are taking place in the economy.
Chalmers has been trying to broaden the conversation on productivity beyond the narrow scope of industrial relations an area where Labor is accused of pursuing reforms that will make the productivity problem worse, but the treasurer is looking to find productivity gains elsewhere. He recommends a variety of potential opportunities as Australia grapples with five major shifts in the economy, including globalization, hydrocarbons to renewables, IT to artificial intelligence, a transition from a younger to an older population, and a shift in the industrial base to a care economy.
These shifts are unstoppable. Riding these waves, rather than being dumped by them over the years ahead, is the task.
Ministers are now jubilantly working on reforms from strengthening competition laws, revamping the immigration system, fixing an underperforming education system, removing barriers to work, and putting aged care and the NDIS into more sustainable settings.
There are lots of balls in the air and there is potential for gain.
It is the only thing noticeably not on the list: any plan for sweeping tax reform. The treasurer hasn't actually squibbed it on tax. He notes that his already announced changes to multinational tax, tobacco excise, tax on large superannuation accounts, and PRRT all measures have met at least some resistance and involved some political exertion.
The GST is not on the scale of exertion that would require major reform of income tax, company tax, GST, negative gearing, capital gains or fringe benefits tax let alone a big bold package encompassing the lot.
There's no sign of cooperation from the Coalition.
Labor is on the path of attempting politically challenging tax reform. It still wears the bruises. The government view now is that when you try to do everything at once, you run the risk of not doing much Incremental steps are now the preferred approach.
Even the modest PRRT amendments, which the gas industry supports, have not been fully supported by the Coalition. It is locked into a no-earnings tax mantra.
The treasurer's caution is understandable without political, or any clear community consensus on tax reform.
The outgoing Chair of the Productivity Commission, Michael Brennan, who has provided government brief advice on some fronts most notably, is more sympathetic when it comes to tax.
Brennan, in a farewell speech at the National Press Club yesterday, pointed out successful tax reform in the past has included a long build-up and a lengthy process of intellectual consensus building involving business and welfare groups. The concept of a Goods and Services Tax, for example, was debated for decades before it was finally implemented.
It's unfair to demand the government take massive political risks on tax reform when others won't.
However, that consensus could be found more easily if the forecasts in today's report prove to be correct.
A hotter, less productive, more debt-laden future could shift the thinking of some. What is, after all, the whole point of this sixth IGR.
David Speers, National Political Lead and host of Insiders, airs on ABC TV at 9 am on Sunday or on iview.