Investors remain cautious ahead of U.S. labour data

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Investors remain cautious ahead of U.S. labour data

On Tuesday the dollar narrowed from last week's peaks as good trials results for a COVID-19 pill supported risk appetite, but investors remained cautious ahead of central bank meeting in Australia and New Zealand as well as U.S. labour data this week. The euro crept back above $1.16, and was up 0.1% to $1.1606, a recovery from last week's low of $1.1563. The yen has also bounced from a 19-month low and was similarly up 0.1% on Global Trade in Asia at 110.92 per dollar. Sterling, the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar all edged higher in early trading, extending gains of late-week traders. Whether it follows through or not, I don't know, said Westpac analyst Imre Speizer at Christchurch on the phone. I'd say that there could still be more downside and that would prop up the U.S. Dollar and Aussie and kiwi would fall a little bit further, he said, with sentiment in the driver's set. In the week ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to keep policy steady. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recorded a 25 basis point hike across the Tasman River on Wednesday. And on Friday, U.S. labor data is expected to show continued improvement in the job market, with a forecast for 460,000 jobs to have been added in September - enough to keep the Federal Reserve on course to begin tapering before year's end. Sterling rose 0.25% to $1.3568, a third consecutive session in the green after a sharp drawdown last week when traders shrugged off hawkish central bank rhetoric to focus on a hawkish outlook and risking both higher rates and inflation. Investors are judging the UK by its whole suite of fundamental factors and movements in sterling suggest that many are not liking what they are seeing, said Rabobank strategist Jane Foley, as the currency erases early 2021 gains. The UK no longer has an advantage on vaccination front. While the Prime Minister of the UK loves Brexit as 'done', many businesses and commentators are just starting to evaluate its impact. The Australian dollar climbed 0.1% to $7273 and kiwi was marginally firmer at $0.6952. Economists polled by Reuters expect the cash rate to remain on hold in Australia until at least 2024, as the RBA is insisting it will be. Swaps indicate a 97% probability of rate hike in November in New Zealand and a 96% chance of another one in November. Traders also think that it would take a lot to derail the Fed from its tapering track, but steadying Treasury yields along the curve points to some risk to the timing. The question is whether there is a number that changes the Fed's view on tapering its bond purchases in November, and what a really weak or hot number means amid the backdrop of rising stagflation fears, said Pepperstone's Head of Research, Chris Weston. If U.S. treasuries find further buyers this week into Friday's non-farm payrolls, the dollar will go on sale this week.