The European Research Group ERG, a hardline Brexiter Conservative MP, has rejected Rishi Sunak's revised plan for trading arrangements in Northern Ireland, saying it would keep EU law supreme. Speaking to reporters in the Commons after an ERG meeting, Francois strongly indicated that the group would recommend voting against the plan but said a final decision would be made at another meeting before the debate.
The decision by the Democratic Unionist party to reject the deal was followed by a damning verdict that increases the potential size of a Tory rebellion against the plan.
It is not clear how much influence the ERG will have on the vote, because it is not clear how much it will influence the vote during the Brexit negotiations under Theresa May. It does not publish any statistics about its membership.
Sunak unveiled the deal last month after talks with Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president. The plan, called Stormont's brake veto, will be a part of the vote on Wednesday. It is going to be decided as a statutory instrument, rather than a bill or a formal change to an existing law.
The ERG has produced a 49-sided report by two lawyers affiliated with the group, part of what it calls its star chamber, published on Tuesday.
According to Francois, the Stormont brake was not effective, and that the check-free green lane for the bulk of goods moving between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK would not work as billed.
Francois said that the star chamber's findings are that EU law will still be supreme in Northern Ireland, the rights of its people under the 1800 Act of Union are not restored, the green lane is not really a green lane at all, and the framework itself has no exit other than through a highly complex legal process. Asked if this meant the ERG would recommend MPs vote against the plan, Francois said this would be decided at a meeting on Wednesday, and that so far the group had not decided what attitude to take. We would like to have all members of Parliament read this before the vote tomorrow so they know exactly what they are voting on.