According to a first draft of the 2024 budget, the Finance Ministry said that Mexico will grow 3% this year and next, with inflation slowing to 4% and the government posting a primary surplus as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador wraps up his term.
Inflation in Latin America is expected to slow to 5% by the end of the year and reach 4% by the end of 2024, from the most recent level of 7.12% in early March. It is slightly above the estimates of Mexico's central bank, which expects an average inflation of 4.8% in the fourth quarter and 3.1% in the last quarter of 2024.
25% as the end of the Hiking Cycle nears.
The plan for 2024 by the government, the last of Lopez Obrador's six-year term, suggests a primary surplus that is equivalent to 0.7% of gross domestic product and a total public deficit of 2.7%. For 2023, the primary deficit will be 0.1% of GDP, slightly better than the initial 0.2% deficit estimate, and a total deficit of 3.7%.
A smooth transition for the next administration is guaranteed, according to a statement from the Finance Ministry led by Rogelio Ramirez de la O. Private economists predict a slowdown in 2023 as the U.S. - Mexico s No., despite the fact that the Mexican economy has risen a better than expected 3.1%, while the Mexican economy has surprised on the upside last year, growing a better than expected 3.1%. 1 trading partner and the biggest buyer of its products is facing the risk of a recession. According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg News earlier this month, the GDP will grow by 1.4% in 2023, 1.9% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025.
Other factors, such as nearshoring, which refers to the movement of companies to Mexico to be closer to the North American market, are expected to continue to provide a boost to the economy.
The Finance Ministry predicted in its budget draft that the Mexican crude basket would be $66.6 per barrel in 2023 and $56.3 in 2024, following a period of volatility in energy prices that the government had tried to keep in check by subsidizing consumers costs at the pump.
Mexico's projected oil output is expected to be 1.877 million barrels per day this year and 1.914 million barrels per day next year.
Crude exports are estimated to be at 800,000 barrels per day for 2023 and 786,000 barrels per day next year. The government has postponed plans to stop crude exports as part of its attempt to make the country self-sufficient in fuel generation.
By law, Mexico s Finance Ministry needs to send a preliminary budget for the following year no later than April 1, with the final proposal being presented to lawmakers no later than Sept. 8.
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