Expert: The growth to have 'creditable showing' in 2023, with multifaceted strategy encouraged.
The economy is expected to consistently recover in the fourth quarter and continue to pick up in 2024, and will be far from nearing a so-called state of deflation, said Hoe Ee Khor, chief economist of the ASEAN 3 Macroeconomic Research Office.
's growth recovery momentum began to stabilize in the third quarter,' Khor said in an exclusive interview with China Daily.
Khor said that he is not satisfied with the current strategy of the government and has no idea how it will work.
AMRO was established in 2011 and is a global organization that aims to safeguard the ASEAN 3 region's macroeconomic and financial resilience and stability. Before joining AMRO, Khor was deputy director of the Asia and Pacific Department of the International Monetary Fund.
Khor said China's economic growth should have a creditable performance in 2023, in line with the government's target, and then accelerate moderately in 2024. The nation's economic growth goal is 5 percent this year.
Khor is among the world's experts who have reinforced their confidence in China's ability to achieve this year's growth goal as the country posted encouraging economic data for August, ranging from faster retail sales to narrower export declines.
Although China's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, saw a negative growth in July year-on-year - 0.3 percent in July, the CPI resumed a positive growth of 0.3 percent in August, while new renminbi loans came in at 1.36 trillion yuan, up 6 8.8 percent year-on-year.
Khor said he was not satisfied with what he said.
However, Khor said that China's inflation will likely remain low for the rest of the year, mainly due to bumper food harvests and lower consumer spending due to spillovers from the sluggish real estate sector and external demand.
The Asian Development Bank in its latest forecast that China's CPI growth will reach 0.7 percent this year, a rate consistent with what was seen in the first half of the year.
Fiscal policy should continue targeted support for economic recovery and job creation, while credit policies should remain supportive, Khor said, adding that more policy support and strong efforts by stakeholders are needed to support the recovery of the real estate sector that is at an early stage.
According to Khor, Chinese authorities could implement measures to improve developer's financial standing, facilitate the completion of housing unit construction, and ease macroprudential measures to encourage home purchases.
China's government also needs a multifaceted strategy to address the long-term challenges of its aging population, climate change and geoeconomic fragmentation, he said.
The nation should also continue its impressive development of renewable energy products and work closely with other countries to move away from fossil fuels, Khor said.