A recent study published in The Lancet journal highlighted the substantial decrease in India's fertility rate, which has dropped from almost 6.2 in 1950 to below 2 in 2021. The study projects a further decline to 1.29 and 1.04 by 2050 and 2100, respectively. These findings align with global trends, where the Total Fertility Rate dropped from over 4.8 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 children per woman in 2021, with projections for further decreases to 1.8 and 1.6 by 2050 and 2100.
According to the study, there has been an increase in live births worldwide, reaching 12.9 crore in 2021 from around 9.3 crore in 1950 but declining from 14.2 crore in 2016. In India specifically, there were over 1.6 crore and 2.2 crore live births in 1950 and 2021, respectively, with a projected decrease to 1.3 crore by 2050. The researchers from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators cautioned that while many regions are dealing with low fertility challenges, some low-income countries will continue to face high fertility issues throughout the 21st century.
Furthermore, the study highlighted that high-fertility, low-income countries, particularly in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, are projected to experience demographic disparities. As these regions contribute significantly to global live births, the researchers foresee a doubled share of low-income countries in global live births from 18% to 35% between 2021 and 2100. Additionally, the study warned that these high-fertility regions are likely to face exacerbated challenges from climate change, such as more frequent natural disasters and heatwaves, impacting food and water security as well as health.
The implications of declining fertility rates are expected to have far-reaching effects on various aspects of societies globally, from economies and geopolitics to health and the environment. The researchers emphasized the importance of addressing the challenges posed by an ageing population through innovations and adequate funding, particularly in healthcare infrastructure and social security programs. They also stressed the significance of improving access to education and contraceptives for women to help control fertility rates. The Population Foundation of India highlighted the need for comprehensive approaches in preparing for future challenges like an aging population and potential labor shortages.