The Maldivian parliamentary elections on April 22, 2019, resulted in a resounding victory for President Mohamed Muizzu's party, handing him an electoral 'supermajority'. This outcome was widely seen as an endorsement of Muizzu's tilt towards China and away from traditional benefactor India.
The vote was considered a crucial test for Muizzu's plan to pursue closer economic cooperation with China, including the construction of thousands of apartments on controversially reclaimed land. The Maldives, a top luxury holiday destination, has emerged as a geopolitical hotspot in the Indian Ocean due to its strategic location along global east-west shipping lanes.
China's growing economic influence in the Maldives has been driven by its desire to secure energy supplies and consolidate its influence over the island nation. Muizzu, who won the presidential election in September 2018 as a proxy for pro-China ex-president Abdulla Yameen, has awarded high-profile infrastructure contracts to Chinese state-owned companies.
His administration has also taken steps to reduce India's military presence in the Maldives, sending home Indian troops operating a reconnaissance aircraft gifted by New Delhi. In March 2019, the Muizzu government signed two military agreements with China, under which China pledged to provide military assistance to the Maldives at no cost.
The details of this assistance remain unclear, but it marks a significant shift from the Maldives' traditional reliance on India for military support. The Muizzu government has also signed an agreement with China concerning the Chinese 'research' vessel Xiang Yang Hong 3, which could potentially impact maritime research in the Indian Ocean Region.
The vessel's arrival in the Maldives coincided with the Muizzu government's refusal to renew a hydrography agreement with India, citing national security concerns. China's growing economic ties with the Maldives have positioned it well to advance its strategic objectives in the region.
As India-led projects progress slowly, the allure of China's rapid infrastructure support could grow, particularly in an election year. China's use of economic coercion to advance its broader objectives has been a source of concern, as evidenced by the leasing of Sri Lanka's Hambantota Port to Beijing for 99 years.
The recent engagements of Chinese 'research' vessels in the Indian Ocean region raise concerns about the potential use of data in adversarial military situations. These vessels, while ostensibly involved in scientific research, can also be used for naval reconnaissance, gathering intelligence on foreign military facilities and vessels.