In Patna, voting through postal ballot is underway for poll duty officials participating in the Lok Sabha elections. The focus is now on the final phase of the election scheduled for June 01, 2024, with attention turning towards the exit poll results and the subsequent vote counting on June 04. There is widespread anticipation regarding the victory margin of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in forming the next government, with most brokerages predicting a majority for the Narendra Modi-led NDA.
Forecasts suggest the likelihood of a market rally in response to the NDA’s victory, followed by some profit-taking shortly after. Post-election, attention is expected to shift towards factors such as market valuations, the government’s upcoming agenda, the 100-day plan, and the future budget announcement later in 2024. Additionally, global factors like oil prices, geopolitics, global central bank interest rate policies, and the US election are predicted to influence the market trend in India.
Brokerages emphasize the unpredictability of election outcomes and advise investors to reduce leverage and transition portfolios towards defensive sectors. While optimism appears to be factored into the market already, they suggest a cautious approach with a buy-on-dip strategy due to the skewed risk-reward scenario. Despite potential short-term market fluctuations based on the election results, historical data indicates that the market tends to adjust over time as investors and businesses adapt to new government policies.