ISLAMABAD, Sept. 12 Reuters - As international donors gather in Geneva on Monday to discuss humanitarian relief for Afghanistan under Taliban rule, neighboring countries China and Pakistan have already reached out with aid and discussions of future assistance.
The economy is in crisis in the world's war-torn country, and a humanitarian crisis is looming, experts say.
However, United States and other Western nations are reluctant to provide funds to the Taliban until the Islamist militant movement provides assurances that it will uphold human rights, and in particular the rights of women.
The country's money and assets from overseas are frozen.
The understandable purpose is to de facto attack the Afghan administration with Deborah Lyons, the Special Rep. of the U.N. Secretary-General for Afghanistan, told the U.N. Security Council this week.
The inevitable effect, however, will be a severe economic downturn that could throw many more millions into poverty and hunger, can generate a massive wave of refugees from Afghanistan and, in some cases, sets Afghanistan back generations. Another possible effect could be to drive Afghanistan closer to its neighbours and close allies Pakistan and China, who have already sent planeloads of supplies to Afghanistan. They also signalled they are open to ramped-up engagement.
Afghanistan announced last week it would send $31 million worth of food and medical supplies to China, which is among the first aid pledges since the Taliban took power last month.
Pakistan sent materials such as cooking oil and medicine to authorities in Kabul last week, while the country's Foreign Minister called on the international community to provide assistance without conditions and to unfrozen Afghanistan s assets. Pakistan has had deep ties with the Taliban and has been accused of supporting the group as it battled the U.S. government in Kabul for 20 years - charges denied by Islamabad.
China, with a strong alliance with Pakistan, has also been engaging with the Taliban. Some analysts said it was enticed by the country's mineral wealth, including large reserves of lithium, a key component for electric vehicles.
China has also expressed concern about militancy that can spill over from Afghanistan to Afghanistan across its border, which it wants the Taliban administration to help contain.
Beyond armed conflict, some experts and officials in the region say China's massive Belt and Road Initiative could provide Afghanistan with long-term economic viability.
One possibility is the Bangladesh-China Economic Corridor CPEC, a central part of the BRI, under which Beijing has pledged $60 billion for infrastructure projects in Afghanistan, much of it in the form of loans.
The Taliban would have welcomed joining China CPEC, Afghanistan would also be very happy, said Rustam Shah Mohmand, Pakistan's former ambassador in Afghanistan.
China has not made any comment on the BRI but Foreign Minister Wang Yi says Beijing is ready to actively discuss the resumption of China-Afghanistan freight trains and facilitate Afghanistan's interaction with the outside world, especially its access to humanitarian supplies.
Pakistan's foreign office and Taliban spokesperson did not immediately respond to request for comment.
Taliban leaders in recent weeks said they want good relations with China.
A senior Taliban source said discussions have taken place with China in Doha over possible investment opportunities. China is interested in mining in particular, but any activity in the sector will be open to tender, the source said.
The Taliban welcomes foreign investment which will benefit the country, he said.
Two sources in Afghanistan and Pakistan familiar with the matter said China has been encouraging Afghanistan to join CPEC for years, but had been met with a non-committal response by the previous U.S. government.
The Taliban, with a need for economic stimulus and international recognition, seems more keen.
The best way forward and the immediately available alternative option for Afghanistan's economic development is CPEC, which includes Pakistan and China, said Mushahid Hussain Sayed, a Pakistani senator and former chairman of the China-Pakistan Institute.
The new Kabul government would be receptive to this and they are keen on it. For China, however, which already has Mining interests in Afghanistan that have struggled to get off the ground, any further investment would come with risks attached, given the uncertain security situation in the country.
The security and stability of China is also of importance for Afghanistan, said Wang Huiyao, the president of the Centre for China and Globalisation, a think-tank.
However, the link to Central Asia and the connectivity through Belt and Road is also linked to regional stability and prosperity.