Bloomberg Economists at Nomura Holdings Ltd. and China International Capital Corp. cut their growth forecasts for China s economy as electricity shortages force companies to cut production from plants.
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The cuts will likely slash the country's growth rate by 0.1 to 0.15 percentage point in third and fourth quarters, CICC economists said in a report. The power supply shock will have a large impact on short-term production, particularly in September, with the months industrial output growth likely dropping to 4% - 4.5%, they wrote.
Its economists had already cut their full-year growth forecasts on Friday and reduced their quarterly estimate to 7.7% from 8.2%, and now see a possibility of lowering the forecasts further due to power shortages.
Even with these cuts, we see more downside risk to our forecasts, Nomura Chief China Economist Lu Ting said in a note. They expect markets to soon adjust their forecasts downwardly. CICC also sees an impact on inflation, with product prices likely to rise from one year earlier at least 9% in 2021 weighing on the profitability of downstream firms. Monetary policy will likely stay neutral with an easing bias, CICC economists said.
In a separate report, CICC revised their full-year projection for export growth to 25,7% from 18,4%, citing robust orders. About 30 - 40% of orders are "directed" from the other exporter countries, hit by virus, it said.
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