New jobless claims are now 203,000, despite Fed tightening

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New jobless claims are now 203,000, despite Fed tightening

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had predicted new claims to total 203,000 in the seven days ended October 1. The figures are seasonally adjusted.

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits is one of the best indicators of whether the economy is getting better or worse.

Raw or actual unemployment filings are still near a historic low. The increase in new claims has been exaggerated since the spring due to the process for seasonal adjustments by the government.

The Federal Reserve is trying to extinguish the highest inflation in 40 years, but the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve jacks up interest rates.

Part of the central bank's goal is to cool off a red-hot labor market in which wages are rising sharply and adding to inflation.

The strategy of the Fed may already be taking effect. Layoffs increased by one measure to an 18 month high, though still quite low. Some large companies such as GE GE, Facebook META, and The Gap have either announced layoffs or plan to do so.

The unemployment rate is projected to go up to 4.4% by the end of 2023 from the current level of 3.7%. The latest unemployment rate will be released in September of this year.

Key details: Of the 53 states and U.S. territories that report jobless claims, 30 showed an increase and 23 recorded a decline.

The jump in claims in Puerto Rico came after another hurricane devastated the island, and most of the new claims were concentrated in a handful of places such as Puerto Rico, Missouri and Massachusetts.

The number of people who are already receiving unemployment benefits went up by 15,000 to 1.36 million. They are close to a 50 year low.

Economists caution against reading too much in the claims report. Since the pandemic, the government's adjusted data has been more erratic.

The headline number that gets Wall Street s attention is one of the lowest readings in history, and the new jobless claims before seasonal adjustments were much lower last week at 167,083 compared to the headline number that is one of the lowest readings in history.

As for layoffs, layoffs remain low, but we expect layoffs to rise gradually over the coming months, due to Fed tightening, said chief economist Rubeela Farooqi of High Frequency Economics. Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and S&P 500 SPX were due to open lower in Thursday trades.