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The Bank of Thailand will likely keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low to gauge whether recent government moves to ease virus restrictions and open more cities are helping the economy.
Nineteen out of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the central bank to cut its policy rate on Tuesday for an 11th straight meeting, while the rest predict a 25 basis point cut. The Monetary Policy Committee will also make revisions to the economic forecasts for the last month of 0.7% in 2022 and 3.7% this year.
Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha announced a series of easing moves monday as part of the government s living with Covid strategy to jumpstart economy. The steps come as the country ramps up inoculations with as many as 1 million doses administered in the past week a day.
Things are looking a bit better with rising vaccinations and lower new infections, although uncertainty remains high looking forward, said Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, an economist at Kasikornbank Pcl s research unit. The central bank is likely to wait for some unknown downturn this year and preserve its limited policy space. The Fed s tightening announcements will also raise the cost for Thailand if we decide to move against the trend and cut rates further. What are some questions asked after Wednesday s decision:
As an experienced economist, despite positive trends such as the easing of restrictions and increasing vaccinations, a number of economists believe the Thai economy remains in the doldrums with local demand weak. Exports and manufacturing, which had key economic supporters earlier in the pandemic, have been affected in August and September by virus spread in factories, quasi-lockdown measures and semiconductor shortages.
Thailand's main economic planning body cut its gross domestic product forecast to 0.7% - 1.2% growth last month, after the Finance Ministry trimmed its forecast to 1.3% in July. On Tuesday, the World Bank cut its forecast for Thai GDP growth to 1% this year, the lowest in Southeast Asia aside from post coup Myanmar.
The central bank will likely maintain its dovish stance, with at least one dissenting vote expected after two of six policy makers in attendance last month voted for a 25 basis point rate cut, the committee s first split decision since May 2020.
It is only a matter of time before the Bank of Thailand increases support for the economy, in our view. Some board members shifted in favor of a rate cut. The case for quantitative easing is attractive - it is a more general tool that could be focused on longer defined yields which have started to rise while front-end of the curve remains well anchored. Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said Wednesday that fiscal policy should remain accommodative and be in sync with the monetary policy. Polites must be out of the book during the current situation, he told a virtual conference, adding that the government will unveil more measures to boost local consumption, help small businesses.
Minutes of the August meeting show the Monetary Policy Committee believes that government fiscal measures would be more effective in jumpstarting the economy than a further reduction in the policy rate.
Earlier this month, the commercial banks revised the criteria for its low-interest loans as well as the incentives to support the Central Bank's debt restructuring.
The government moved last week to raise the public-debt ceiling to boost borrowing and spending in support of the recovery. The baht has weakened more than 11% against the dollar this year, the worst performer among major Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg. In this year, the central bank and government has been tolerant of baht movement as the weaker currency helps exports. Shipments rose 8.9% in August and 15.3% in the first eight months of the year.
According to last month's MPC minutes, the baht exhibited more volatile movement and could depreciate more than its domestic peers because of volatile factors. The committee said it would closely monitor the financial markets developments to keep baht stability and ensure that exchange rate doesn t hinder businesses.
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