Unemployment rate falls to 22-month low in December

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Unemployment rate falls to 22-month low in December

The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%.

WASHINGTON, Jan 7 Reuters - U.S. employment growth likely picked up in December, culminating in record job creation in 2021, but the labor market could lose its luster because of raging COVID 19 infections that cause disruptions at businesses and schools.

The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday shows that the jobs market is tightening, with the unemployment rate falling to a 22 month low of 4.1% from 4.2% in November. Even if the public health picture is not as improved as officials had hoped, it will paint a picture of an economy that closed 2021 on a high note.

Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said that the economy's path is still tied to the Pandemic and Omicron is going to deliver a significant blow to the economy in the first quarter.

According to a survey of economists, non-farm payrolls rose by 400,000 jobs last month after rising 210,000 in November. In 2021, a whopping 6.5 million jobs would have been created because of payrolls that meet expectations.

President Joe Biden, who is celebrating his first anniversary in the White House this month, is going to be the biggest increase in employment since record keeping started in 1939, a fact that is likely to be highlighted by President Joe Biden.

Employment would be about 3.5 million jobs less than its peak in February 2020. Estimates ranged from as low as 150,000 to as high as 1.1 million jobs.

The employment report was released in mid-December, and the government surveyed businesses and households for the month's employment report in mid-December just as the Omicron variant started to sluggish across the country. Nearly 1 million people were reported on the website of the United States. com world us us-reports -- nearly 1 mln-covid-day-setting-global record 2022 -- 01- 04 new coronaviruses on Monday, the highest daily tally of any country in the world.

Thousands of flights have been canceled by airlines, and some school districts have suspended in-person learning. Some working parents may have to take on childcare duties with the reversion to online learning.

Even if they still have a job with their company, people who are out sick or in quarantine and don't get paid during the survey period are counted as unemployed.

Michael Pearce, a senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics in New York, said that the chaos caused by the rapid spread of the Omicron variant came too late to have a big impact on December payrolls, which we estimate increased by a healthy 350,000. The large number of people being told to isolate could cause a significant drop in payrolls in January. The November payrolls count, which was the smallest since December 2020, could be revised higher, as the response rate to the survey that month was extremely low, according to economists. The forecast for December payrolls is highly uncertain, given the vagaries of the model used by the government to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data.

Economists noted that there were anomalies with the seasonal adjustment that depressed the monthly change in payrolls both in November and December 2020.

Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP in Jersey City, said that the anomalies may get more company on Friday. We wouldn't shrug off the disappointment in the reported payrolls level if the seasonal adjustment factors were as stingy as we thought. Payrolls would be less than expected due to a shortage of workers. There were 10.6 million job openings on Tuesday, according to the government. com markets us record 45 million-americans - quit-jobs november -- 2022 -- 01- 04 at the end of November.

There were signs in November that some unemployed people were entering the labor market after the end of government-funded jobless benefits early in the fall. The reentry could be slowed by spiraling Omicron cases.

The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of Americans with a job or are looking for one, has been slow to improve since falling to multi-decade lows early in the epidemic.

Economists at Goldman Sachs believe that participation will remain a half point below the pre-pandemic demographic trend at the end of the year, with most of the early retirees and some younger and middle-aged workers staying out.

The unemployment rate fell four tenths of a percentage point in November, while the participation rate rose to 61.8% from 61.6% in October.

A further drop ahead of the March meeting would be suggestive of earlier liftoff, said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York. The rate hikes would be more likely later at the June meeting if further increases in participation are accompanied by a steady unemployment rate. The rising wages are a sign of tighter labor market conditions. The average hourly earnings are expected to have advanced 0.4% in December. The annual increase is expected to decline to a still high 4.2% from 4.8% in November. This is the result of the big gains that fell out of the calculation last year.

While inflation has outpaced wage gains, consumers have continued to spend because of massive savings and increased job security, underpinning the economy. The growth last year is expected to have been the best since 1984.