Australia's Next COVID Wave: What to Expect in the Coming Weeks

257
1
Australia's Next COVID Wave: What to Expect in the Coming Weeks

Australia is currently in the midst of a new wave of COVID-19 infections, which has been building up slowly over several months. This wave is confirmed through various indicators, such as wastewater surveillance, rising hospital admissions, and increased antiviral prescriptions. Unlike previous waves, this one is expected to be smaller, possibly due to the slow growth rate and the increasing levels of hybrid immunity. The wave is likely to vary between different states and territories, and it is predicted to be over by early in the summer holiday period when community contact rates decline. The cause of this wave is attributed to the constantly mutating virus, particularly the immune escape variants that reduce the effectiveness of antibodies. The primary viral lineage in Australia is XBB, which has mutations that make existing antibodies less effective and increase susceptibility to infection. Older people and those with weaker immune systems are at the greatest risk during this wave, and boosters have been recommended for them. Available vaccines offer protection against the original strain and some Omicron variants, with newer monovalent vaccines expected to provide better protection against newer variants. Looking ahead to 2024, it is anticipated that Australia may experience overlapping seasonal epidemics of COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus, necessitating hospital preparedness for larger peaks in admissions. The development of newer vaccines for these viruses is expected to provide better protection in the future.