Bloomberg - Production of key crops including coffee and sugar could decrease in the long term by as much as 59% due to climate change, according to a report by the Stockholm Environment Institute, while wheat production may increase.
The U.S. China, and Brazil are significant sources of climate risk for global commodity markets, the report says, arguing that changes will disrupt long-established trade flows all over the world and risk social upheaval.
Corn production in the U.S. alone could plunge nearly half in the long term 2070 -- 2099 due to warmer temperatures, according to the institute, putting countries that buy the crop at risk Output in Russia and Canada may rise by 13% and 17%, respectively, but not enough to offset shortfalls elsewhere.
Despite wheat production could rise 14%, this may require expensive moving of production to Europe and parts of South America and Asia. Russia and Canada can increase production of corn, soy and rice, however, growing areas would likely have to relocate inside those countries, the authors said during a briefing.
The report was published ahead of the United Nations Climate Summit in Glasgow next month and calls for policymakers to look beyond national borders to combat climate change. The estimates focus on the impact of extreme temperatures and exclude the consequences of warmer weather events.