The economists of Bloomberg -- Morgan Stanley said they now expect the euro area to slide into a mild recession in the fourth quarter of this year because of reduced energy supplies from Russia.
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In a report released Wednesday, economists, including Jens Eisenschmidt, wrote that the economy would contract for two quarters before resuming growth in the second quarter of next year, driven by an increase in investment.
They changed their forecast due to the possibility of reduced natural gas flows from Russia into Europe and the decline of consumer and business morale alongside persistently high inflation.
Eisenschmidt and colleagues wrote that the risks around the outlook have intensified.
They said that despite the slowdown, they still expect the European Central Bank to lift its deposit rate at every meeting this year to 0.75% in December, although they conceded that it could stop hiking after September if the outlook deteriorates.
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