Sales Surge, China Dominates
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales in 2024, driven by falling prices and a shift towards mass-market adoption.
Global EV sales are expected to reach 17 million by the end of the year, up from 14 million in 2023. This represents a 25% increase year-on-year.
China continues to dominate the EV market, with an estimated 10 million electric cars sold in 2024, giving it a 45% market share. Europe and the US are expected to have 25% and 11% shares, respectively.
EV Revolution Gearing Up
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasizes the continued momentum behind electric cars, despite perceptions of a slowdown. He believes the global EV revolution is entering a new phase of growth.
This growth is attributed to falling prices due to intense competition among carmakers and a significant expansion in battery supply chains.
Major Ramifications for Auto and Energy Sectors
The IEA predicts that by 2030, almost one in three cars on the roads in China will be electric, and almost one in five in both the United States and the European Union. This shift will have major ramifications for both the auto industry and the energy sector.
Concerns and Resilience
Despite the positive outlook, concerns remain about eroding carmaker profits, volatile battery metal prices, and the phasing out of subsidies in some countries. However, the IEA argues that the broader industry is more resilient than some people recognize.
Importance of Electrification
The IEA emphasizes the importance of electrifying the transport fleet to reduce emissions. The transport sector is responsible for about a quarter of the world's annual emissions, and cleaning it up is a pressing task.
Current policy settings and the uptake of electric vehicles are projected to avoid the need for more than 10 million barrels of oil per day in 2035, equivalent to all the oil demand from road transport in the United States today.