The Treasury and Bank of England have to ride tandem to tackle stagflation

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The Treasury and Bank of England have to ride tandem to tackle stagflation

Earlier this month, I used the analogy that the Bank of England and the Treasury are having to ride a tandem across a tightrope in dealing with stagflation, a period of simultaneous stagnant growth and high inflation.

Both institutions have individual balancing acts that are very difficult, but they also need to coordinate their responses carefully.

As the classic textbook response to stagflation is for the central bank to raise rates to deal with accelerating prices, and the government to support the economy in some way. As a result of the new government rescue package, economists suggest that the Bank of England might have to raise rates faster.

I asked the chancellor this month what the conceptual difference was between the pandemic intervention offering whatever it takes and the energy crisis by doing whatever we can. I have never seen such universal pressure on households and businesses. I have never seen such willingness to tell our cameras the extent of the squeeze. I have never seen such a level of expectation that the government should step in.

The furlough scheme has raised the bar for what the public expects of the government during a crisis, as I said yesterday.

The inescapable reality of this crisis-ridden decade is that a British state that has been left permanently bigger than it is for a government full of pamphleteers and theorists who write about lower taxes, freer markets and a smaller state.

Intellectual and philosophical instincts are being trumped in a crisis. In 2016 and 2019 the prime minister's election campaign promised a state that did more.

This won't be the last time that the government will intervene fiscally, in a way that it wouldn't have dreamt of before the Pandemic.

The message from the World Economic Forum in Davos this week was that the crisis era is not over.