WASHINGTON — Climate change poses a mounting threat to U.S. national security, with rising temperatures, droughts and extreme weather likely to trigger instability and conflict in developing countries, according to new reports from the White House and the Defense Department.
The reports paint a dire picture of growing risks caused by radical changes in the world's climate, with countries competing for dwindling water and food supplies while facing waves of migration across borders.
The Biden administration released the reports as world leaders plan to meet in Glasgow next month for crucial talks aimed at combating climate change.
We assess that climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to U.S. national security interests as the physical impacts increase and geopolitical tensions mount about how to respond to the challenge, according to the NIE issued by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Intensifying geopolitical flashpoints will exacerbate geopolitical flashpoints, particularly after 2030, and key countries and regions will face increasing risks of instability and need for humanitarian assistance, it said. U.S. National Intelligence Estimates reflect a consensus of all the intelligence agencies.
Apart from the 11 countries cited, the intelligence report also said climate change was likely to ratchet up the risk of instability in Central Africa and small island states in the Pacific, which it called two of the most vulnerable areas in the world. In the Middle East, a decline in revenue from oil and other fossil fuels will likely further strain countries in the region that are expected to suffer from extreme heat and longer droughts, the intelligence report said.
Although the United States was in a relatively better position to respond to the effects of climate change, the report said the impacts will be massive even if the worst human costs can be avoided. A Pentagon report said that rising temperatures could exacerbate factors that lead to migration and even cause governments to collapse. The report said in worst-case scenarios, climate change-related impacts could stress economic and social conditions that contribute to mass migration events or political crises, civil unrest, shifts in the regional balance of power, or even state failure. A White House report said that migration fueled by climate change could put more pressure on America's allies and partners, as migrants likely seek refuge in democratic, stable countries that adhere to international conventions on asylum.
The assessment also said Russia, China and other adversaries could seek to exploit climate change's effects to drive migrants to the U.S. and U.S. allies.
Climate change related migration could cause greater instability among U.S. allies partners and thereby cause a relative strengthening in adversary states, said the White House report on the impact of climate change on migration.
In addition, adversaries could incite or aid irregular migration to destabilize U.S. allies partners, the White House report said.
Without an effective strategy from the United States and Europe, China, Russia and other governments could seek to gain influence by delivering support to countries struggling to address political unrest related to migration, it said.
Russia also sees some benefits in the destabilizing effects of large-scale migration to the EU, particularly as it relates to the rise of xenophobia and political parties skeptical of the European project and the broader liberal order, the report said.
Although Russia will face difficulties from climate change including flooding and more forest fires, Moscow could benefit overall as it will have more land open up to cultivation and resource extraction along with new sea routes in the Arctic that were previously inaccessible, according to the White House report.
Over the past decade U.S. intelligence agencies and senior military leaders have issued repeated warnings about the effect of climate change on global security, saying it could cause wars over water or other scarce resources.