- U.S. interest rate traders have upgraded to almost 50 - 50 the odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in June.
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Interest rate swaps referencing the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee price in around 12 basis points of an increase. A full hike is priced fully at the September meeting, with a second hike by February 2023.
The yield on the two-year Treasury note climbed, meanwhile, as much as 4 basis points Friday, topping 0.40% for the first time since March 2020. In eurodollar futures rates are higher by as much as 10 basis points, reflecting elevated expectations for Fed rate hikes. The moves accelerated after the data showed November retail sales rose more than expected.
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