## March Freight Metrics Remain Flat with February
The Cass Freight Index, released on Monday, revealed that freight shipments and expenditures in March remained largely in line with February, falling short of typical seasonal trends. The year-over-year declines in both data sets continued to ease during the month.
March shipments decreased by 2.3% seasonally adjusted from February and 3.6% compared to the same month last year. Without the seasonal adjustment, March volumes saw a slight decline of 0.2% sequentially. However, it's important to note that February had an extra day this year.
The shipments index currently sits 7.5% below the March 2022 level. Shipments captured by the index, which primarily focuses on trucking, increased approximately 2% seasonally adjusted from the fourth to the first quarter.
The report also revised the expectation for a positive volume inflection by one month. The index is now projected to decline by 2% to 3% year-over-year in April, with a positive turn expected by June.
Cass' expenditures data set, which encompasses all dollars spent on freight, including fuel surcharges and accessorial charges, fell by 1.3% seasonally adjusted from February to March and 18.5% year-over-year.
After adjusting for the change in volumes, the data indicates that actual rates were down 15.4% year-over-year during March. The subindex for implied rates has consistently shown year-over-year declines in the mid-teens to 21% range for the past ten months.
Compared to March 2022, total freight expenditures decreased by 28.3%. The data set is expected to decline by 14% year-over-year in the first half of this year and 9% for the full year.
Cass' truckload linehaul index, which excludes changes in fuel and accessorial charges, increased by 0.2% sequentially and was down just 4.7% year-over-year. This marks the smallest year-over-year decline since December 2022. The TL linehaul index captures changes in both spot and contract rates.
The subindex was down 13.8% on a two-year comparison but has remained within a "very tight range" for the past nine months.
The report noted that with spot rates remaining steady over the past several months, the downward pressure on the larger contract market is lessening. There have even been instances of contract rate increases bucking the recent downtrend.
Overall, the Cass March report paints a picture of a flat first quarter for the freight industry. With equity analysts lowering expectations ahead of the first-quarter earnings season, which kicks off with J.B. Hunt Transport Services on Tuesday evening, a tepid backdrop in the overall U.S. industrial complex alongside a surplus of available truck capacity is likely to keep TL rates in check for the near future.